Navigating Mexico’s Interoceanic Corridor: Exploring Challenges and Opportunities via Simulation Modeling

The Interoceanic corridor of Mexico stands as a pivotal infrastructure project poised to significantly enhance Mexico's national and regional economy. Anticipated to start the operations in 2025 under the auspice of the national government, this corridor represents a strategic counterpart to the Panama Canal, which faces capacity constraints due to climate change and environmental impacts. Positioned as a promising alternative for transporting goods from Asia to North America, this corridor will offer a new transport route, yet its real operational capacity and spatial impacts remains uncertain. In this paper, the authors undertake a preliminary, informed analysis leveraging publicly available data and other specific information about infrastructure capacities and economic environment to forecast the potential throughput of this corridor upon full operationalization and in the future. Applying simulation techniques, the authors simulate the future operations of the corridor according to different scenarios to offer insights into its potential capacity and impacts. Furthermore, the paper delves into the opportunities and challenges that are inherent in this project and gives a comprehensive analysis of its potential impact and implications.